TRYING TO SQUASH A RUMOR IS LIKE TRYING TO UNRING A BELL…and last week was full of rumors and threats, around the world and in our own backyard. Let’s take a closer look at the rumblings of the week, and how it all impacted mortgage interest rates.

This week brought ongoing warnings from the FBI that Texas oil refineries need to be on the watch for terrorist threats. Last Monday’s killing of Hamas leader sheikh Ahmed Yassin has the Palestinian militants threatening revenge on Israel and the United States. Political unrest continues in Taiwan following last weekend’s presidential election, right on the heels of the attempted assassination of the incumbents. In Pakistan, rumors abound that it is not appearing hopeful that the Pakistani army actually has Osama bin Laden’s right-hand man surrounded near the Afghanistan border. After almost a year of relative calm on the geopolitical news front, these events are now heating up once again. This type of news would typically give Bonds a boost and cause mortgage rates to drop, but the market seems to be toughening up and resisting against snap reactions to geopolitical rumors and threats.

But rumors about this Friday’s crucial Jobs Report didn’t seem to be met with the same “ho-hum” attitude. Word hit the streets that analysts were considering optimistically increasing their estimates of new job creation, and Bonds took a sharp thrashing last Friday afternoon. One Trader, Deepin Behelallup, said the sound of the rumor “reverberated and stunk up the trading pit”. This caused Bonds to give up the ground gained over the week, and mortgage rates increased by about .125%.

HOW CAN YOU GAIN GROUND IN YOUR OWN BUSINESS AND LIFE? SUCCESS CAN MEAN DIFFERENT THINGS TO DIFFERENT PEOPLE, BUT EVERYONE WANTS IT. DID YOU KNOW THAT SIMPLY “TAKING ACTION” IS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS FOR SUCCESS? SOUND TOO SIMPLE TO BE TRUE? READ THIS WEEKS MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW AND DECIDE FOR YOURSELF.

And here we are once again…anxiously awaiting the all-important Jobs Report due to be released on Friday. Over recent months, the topic of new job creation in the US economy has become household talk, but Traders, the Fed, and everyone else will just have to wait and see. The inability for new job growth to follow the rest of the primarily positive economic data continues to be a nagging concern, and as we have seen in the past, this report can impact the trend of interest rates for days and even weeks to come. Remember that last Friday’s commotion in the Bond market and the resulting move higher in interest rates was all caused by simple chat and rumors about analysts forming more optimistic estimates on the report – so hold on to your hat when the real deal is released. The early forecast is for 100,000 new jobs to have been created during March, with additional optimism rumbling through the trading pits. But remember that last month, the hope was for 125,000 new jobs created and the real numbers came in at a disappointing 21,000. Bonds rocketed higher on the bad news and mortgage interest rates improved.

The Jobs Report has been very kind to interest rates. Six of the past seven reports have been below expectations, which have helped interest rates decline to present levels. The only Jobs Report above expectations was released way back on October 3rd, 2003 for the month of September…so it has been a long string of disappointing numbers. Is this Report due for an upside surprise? Eventually, it will happen and bonds will sell off hard when it does. Until Friday, Bonds and mortgage interest rates will likely remain somewhat neutral ahead of this critical release. Traders will also use the level of job creation as the key indicator signaling the possibility of a change in the Federal Reserve's patient stance toward increasing the Fed Funds Rate. Last week, Fed Presidents Guynn and Minehan made comments suggestive of pending increases. When discussing the Fed’s present accommodative stance, President Minehan stated, “I would argue that while patience is a virtue, so too is vigilance against inflation.”

Bottom Line: Mortgage interest rates will be slightly higher Monday morning over last Friday morning. Barring any midweek surprises, rates are not likely to move much until the results of the Jobs Report are released this coming Friday.

If you want something done give it to a busy person.

An old, but very true saying. Busy people get things done, which is probably why they are so busy to begin with…people want to do business with them.

Sales people are flooded with great sales tools, tips and strategies that promise to increase their business. These tools are typically very beneficial and do provide wonderful solutions. But the one thing they can’t do is force the sales person to take action. Simply taking action is perhaps the single biggest key to success, in business and in life. In most every sales office, the top producers are not necessarily the smartest or those blessed with raw talent, but are those who have learned the power of taking action. Taking action almost always gives an advantage, even if the competition may have more skill or ability. It is very common to see talent wasted or not optimized, because no action is taken to produce results. There is another old saying that “knowledge is power”, but it is only powerful if it is acted upon.

How can we practice and improve our ability to take action?

• Start by not over analyzing tasks. Sure we need to think things through, but you can over think it too. If you worry too much about getting it perfect before implementation, you can lose momentum, lose your window of opportunity or worst of all…never do it. A good strategy is to first be sure your idea is ethical and legal, and then implement it if you think your chances of success are at least 70%. Successful people tend to make decisions quickly and change them slowly, where many unsuccessful people make decisions slowly and change them quickly.
• Break a large project in to bite size pieces – your action steps. If a project or plan that you know will improve your business just seems too large or overwhelming, break the plan down into manageable steps. Determine what actions need to be taken, then go ahead and take the first one! How do you eat an elephant? …One bite at a time…
• Don’t procrastinate. Easier said than done – but the truth is that the longer you wait to do something, the less the chance you will ever do it. Rather than putting it on your endless list of “to-do’s” – do it right away…do it right now if possible. You will impress your clients – they will love it! Think about it - don’t you love it when you are the customer and you get service right away? You may even impress yourself if you start getting into the habit of “doing it right now”.
• Believe in yourself and the power of taking action. Did you ever think of a great idea at night…only to talk yourself out of it in the morning? Worse yet, have others talked you out of it…ultimately denying you your dream. Believe in yourself…take chances…go for it. Sometimes we spend so much time thinking about the task that it becomes daunting. Don’t think about it… go ahead and get started. Just do it!

The bottom line is that it doesn’t matter how many great ideas you hear or see. It doesn’t matter how many great plans you come up with for yourself, your business, or your life. What matters is how many of these ideas, plans and dreams you put into action and make a reality. Do you have something that’s been on your to-do list for months? Do you have a great idea you’ve been kicking around? Do you know the next push you need to make to move forward in your career or your life? Grab it right now – don’t wait another day. Take a step, make a decision, put your plans into motion and enjoy the rewarding feeling of having taken action!

Friday’s Jobs Report will take center stage this week as far as economic news is concerned. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Report and the Institute of Supply Managers Index will provide information on strength in the manufacturing sector on Wednesday and Thursday, but will be watched with somewhat the same half-hearted interest as the opening act for a headline show. The market in general will be on the “edge of their seats”, waiting to see what the Jobs Report will bring this Friday morning.

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data would indicate the economy is not improving as quickly as expected, and could cause mortgage rates to improve. Positive data would indicate a strengthening economic climate, and could cause mortgage rates to gradually climb higher.

For the week of March 29 – April 2, 2004